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So is this is how it really works?
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woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.
Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before. You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics. I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people. This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have. So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all. |
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Boner Oiler wrote
at 9:34 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST all you have to do is think about what the good move is and then do the opposite. voila really shitty luck stats
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 9:51 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST Imagine this, you play head or tails
your betting stratigy is to bet 10 % of your money every single time you now have a stratigy that have -0.005 expected value, per toss. similarly, if I start with 100 and my stratigy is as follows, I will bet 50 every time, until a) I loose b) if I get to +1000 I will do 100 more flips c) I will do 30 flips I bet you if I took this stratigy, and did the luck calculatios of kdice, I would get lower luck than 50 % |
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montecarlo wrote
at 9:57 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST kreuz, i understand you have defeated everyones logic based on your assumptions (which arent proven). okay, new scenario. lets say you can measure the average DIE ROLL for an account. surely you agree that this follows a gaussian. it does.
oh but wait, this isnt theoretical. kakku mans script allows to track these averages. analysis of the "cursed" accounts averages yielded insanely low p-values showing significant deviation from 3.5 for these bums rolls. get your head out of the sand. norway doesnt even have sand does it? |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 10:01 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST so you mean to report that fiero has used that program for more than 50k die rolls (which was the point of my poker story), while it is not proven that the average of ryans algorithm is 3.5,
really, 50k die rolls on ANY cursed account |
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montecarlo wrote
at 10:04 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST lol if you think 50k rolls is needed to run a simple differ-from-the-norm test.
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 10:06 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST that really depends on what average you get
if your average is 1, then you only need like 10 rolls if your average is 3.4, then (I guessed) you need about 50k rolls, (maybe just 10k) |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 10:15 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST also, I have no trouble assuming fiero is within the 0.1 % unluckiest kdicers, (someone has to be here too), and when you work under this assumptions, the numbers are simply unconvincing
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 10:35 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST ok, did calculation, about 3k rolls was needed to prove it in a simple random sample
but what we have is not a simple random sample, what we have is one of the lowest samples we could find. |
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reminder wrote
at 10:40 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST ...and the canceling of membership right before the luck drops is a pure coincidence too?
Mr. K, you should NEVER work as a detective. heck, even maths prove you wrong, and all you do is claim that if the player played n games with n close to whatever you want, his luck would average to ~49%. No matter what n we provide, it's too "small" for you. You can treat EVERYTHING in the world as coincidences, but hey, if you pull your head out of your... sand, you can see that the world has quite a few laws which make the "randomness" not so random. No wonder we had an argument about PGAs. You simply fail to notice any recurrences and write them off as coincidences. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 10:41 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST it basicly comes down to this, you have not the math to prove that fiero is not among the 0.1% unluckiest kdicers by chanse, but he is there because of ryans programming.
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