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So is this is how it really works?
woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.

Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before.
You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics.

I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people.

This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have.

So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all.

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superxchloe wrote
at 8:26 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
luck is weighted based on rounds. One game with 2 rounds and 30% luck and another with 23 rounds of 50% luck make 48.4%, not 40%. If you'd rather I assume average game length to be ten rounds, I'll gladly do that... I'll even throw you a large standard deviation between rounds.

Here: http://bit.ly/fMhWF9
Expected mean as 48 (again, far lower than the true average), sample mean as 45. A TWENTY PERCENT deviation between rounds and 1000 rounds (100 games) yields a p value of 1.204 x 10^-6.
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 8:27 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
lol. Mr. K isn't dumb. But he is playing devil's advocate here.
Boner Oiler wrote
at 8:28 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
There's no curse.
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:37 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
just had a look at bleached latest 3game day, and your 2 games of the month

and in both of the cases, the luck is not weighted for number of rounds the game lasts, unless all of his games had the same number of turns, and yours had the same number of turns
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:41 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
checked gurgis 21st feb, still no weighting for number of rounds

we are working with a beta distribution of some sortis my guess, not a bell curve
superxchloe wrote
at 8:52 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I've played more than 2 games this month. But since when is 20 rounds the same as 29?

But in any case, it seems you're right about month luck. Can we agree that weighted-by-round luck would follow a bell curve? We can, then, take jesse's last 5 games. They have a weighted-by-round average of 38.22 over 78 rounds. Even with that small a sample size and the previously mentioned expected average and standard devation, p=2.313x10^-5.
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:57 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
"But in any case, it seems you're right about month luck. Can we agree that weighted-by-round luck would follow a bell curve?"

no, for the simple reason that some players, when they loose a few rolls, they tend to sit in a corner and wait, not rolling more attacks, fiero is a player that does this, you can see this by his dom.
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:59 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
and, where do you get your standard deviation from? if it was calculated under the assumption of the curve you are presenting, its wrong
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 9:02 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
oh, and I am not arguing about this just to mess with you, I am doing it because it looks to me like the proof presented is not good enough and that I feel ryan would not implement this in his code.

also there is always a problem when looking from the single case as you know as a statican
Boner Oiler wrote
at 9:03 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
Mr. K is right. Luck is weighted by roll (offensive and defensive) so players that PGA a lot are more likely to attack more than they are to defend rolls over the course of a game. Therefore it follows players like this will naturally have lower luck than people that have even attacks and rolls. Ergo fiero would naturally have lower luck than most anyway.
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