Forum
So is this is how it really works?
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woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.
Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before. You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics. I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people. This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have. So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 7:25 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST what? average luck of about 45% over about 600 games?
when he have played more than 10k games? and you have sooo many players playing and they are playing that many games and we only hear from the ones that are complaining? |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 7:27 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST you are not taking into account that we only hear from the few people that are complaing, and we only hear about the ones that happens to get their bad luck streak when they cancel membership. it is actually expected that stuff like that is going to happen in a random system
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Prince Of Persia wrote
at 7:39 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST just by chance that everyone complains has the same correlations lol
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Prince Of Persia wrote
at 7:41 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST what bout my stats mr. k?
http://kdice.com/profile/19758944/stats i played over 10k games over 38 months and was a member 33 of the 38 months. the 5 months i wasn't a member, my luck % is 5% lower on each of them than each other the other 33 months. random chance??? |
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superxchloe wrote
at 7:56 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST mr. K, the probability of having <45% luck over even 100 games is <<.0005... EVEN IF the actual average were 48 (instead of 49.2 or so) and standard deviation was 1 (was closer to .4 or so if I recall), the p value would be 8.504 x 10^-52.
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montecarlo wrote
at 8:07 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST chloe, mr k knows math and stats and this magical thing called variance. dont belittle him with such hand-waving and "proof". norwegians can run calcs in their heads. and based on 700 poker hands, mr k knows that about 10k+ kdice dice rolls, corresponding to 50k+ dice rolled, well, thats not SEVEN HUNDRED HANDS OF POKER!!
mr k, these are statisticians providing PURE stats. they are completely objective, unbiased. skrum was never cursed, never complained about it. neither was chloe. the complainers just gave them the results of thousands upon thousands of rolls. they analyzed them. result = curses exist. youre a nice guy, stop acting like a douche here. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:17 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST chloe we are obviously not working with the bell curve, this is because the games with really bad luck tend to be over quickley, while the games that you have good luck tends to be longer and therefor the luck tend to be closer to 50%.
in a game with really good luck, you will probably be fighting to round 20 anyways, but bad luck tends to kill you round 2 therefor we cannot simply use the standard deviation because the luck of bad games gets weighted more heavily than the good games, this is also why the average luck of players will be lower than the pure dice luck. futhermore most of this is confirmation bias, if the game is truly random clusters are expected. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:18 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST montecarly I sad 700-1000 poker GAMES, there are maybe 200 hands in a game, that takes about 4 months to complete
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:23 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST when I did that calucaltion a few years ago, I checked the stats of about 30 steady $500 players that had between them more than 70 000 games.
when I think about it, I think the number might have been 2000, but since I cannot remember, I will shut up |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:25 PM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST ^^^by that I mean that the graph looked close too
ax +b*sin(cx) where c was about pi/1000 making the entire curve go for 2k games before completion. |