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So is this is how it really works?
woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.

Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before.
You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics.

I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people.

This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have.

So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all.

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montecarlo wrote
at 8:11 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
veta, the MEAN of the die rolls follows a gaussian. if you were to take the 5000 people that play kdice, and plot their die roll MEANS, they would surely without a doubt follow a normal distribution about 3.5 (assuming no significant bias in the RNG).

fieros MEAN roll was 2.8, mine was 3.0

stop jumping to conclusions based on false assumptions dude.
montecarlo wrote
at 8:12 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
btw kreuz, you get +5 cool points for making the 100th post without referring to the fact.
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 8:32 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
@ das. I do believe that I deserved having a 'curse' on me. But I do not believe that anyone can rationally argue that my 2.8 average dice roll over a month of play could have been by 'chance'
you guys can post all the bullshit theory computer science blah blah blah blah blah
me and monte had a cursed account. johnson and big jumblies and bombardier have also and could testify. It's real my friend. There was a screen shot during my testing where I lost 6 8v5's back to back to back to back. It was the same day I rolled an '8' with an 8 stack. Curses are real, get over it.
cuckknucker wrote
at 8:35 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
a normal distribution isn't bounded that's why i said it wasn't normal, obviously it's a bell curve monte.
jurgen wrote
at 8:37 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
dug up an old thread I made

http://i56.tinypic.com/k9syol.jpg

the luck histogram I made for all luck data I had until nov 2010 (35 months total , removing luck data for months with less than 35 games)

I's a nice gaussian bell curve as expected, only not averaging at 50% but at 49,2

81% of the data points are found in the 48,7-49,6% range; 92% in the 48,5-49,8% range

There aren't too many monthly outliers, I expected more but then again, cursed accounts will have a hard time getting a medal.

player-----games---luck%
fiero600----139--45,5%
Dice!-------229--45,8%
fiero600----62---46,2%
CoMik-------64---46,7%
fiero600----42---47,0%
jpc4p-------73---47,1%
Bombardier DS 65--211---47,3%

on the other side of the curve, only one true outlier, ironically by the guy who always complains about his amazing bad luck mrRo:

Kehoe 54 games 50,9%
Magic Roundabout 70 games 51,2%
mrRo 130 games 55,2%

That there is so much variation in a month seems normal. However if you look at accounts having played say 3000 games or more, the variation in "career luck" also ranges from 48,5 to 49,7. If luck is just random, most accounts should average around 49,2-49,3% career luck after 3000+ games imo.
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 8:59 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
lol im there 3 times out of 7
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 9:01 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
add big jumblies to that list. his curse was as bad if not worse than mine iirc
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 9:01 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
my experiment is not going perfect, I have urrently 49%, but I have been rolling an average of 4.2

cuckknucker wrote
at 9:01 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
as me and mr. k pointed out before this data is useless because it doesnt weigh average luck by rolls. That is to say the frequency of these lucks should be weighted according to rolls, they should not be weighted by individuals or the months of individuals (because i don't think people usually rolls the same amount in a given month).
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 9:03 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
lol 49%
that's about the only number you didn't want to see
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