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So is this is how it really works?
woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.

Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before.
You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics.

I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people.

This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have.

So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all.

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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 9:07 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
only had 6 games, but when you get 2 games with 55%, and they where both over 60% because of insane rolling. I feel I had some "bad luck"
jurgen wrote
at 9:10 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
when Chloe and me calculated some career lucks, we got a weighed average luck (wheighed by number of games each month) so you factor out the variation of #games played each month

it's not perfectly weighed by rolls that way but we don't have enough data from ryan to do it. But since the monthly luck % is weighed correctly on rolls, it's pretty close for career too if you assume every game has about the same number of rolls on average for each month
mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 9:13 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
jurgen, problem is that you can affect expected luck with stratigy, without playing bad.

I think I shuold be able to affect it to the point where I get less than 46.0% luck conisistently

the plan is similar to the fact that one only need 26% of all the voters in USA if you can draw the maps
dasfury wrote
at 9:48 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
"Naturally the only way it could affect you luck is by reducing the possible attacks you can make, therefore it reduces your luck % as opposed to increasing it (which would happen from more conservative play)."

your luck was lower bc you pgad like crazy.

curses are bullshit
cuckknucker wrote
at 10:12 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
Oh yeah let me fix that
****"The only way PGA could affect your luck is by reducing the number of players that can or will attack you, this imbalance in offense versus defense would therefore decrease your luck as opposed to an imbalance in defense versus offense which would increase your luck."
montecarlo wrote
at 10:17 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
wait since when does a high ATT:DEF ratio mean you get better luck compared to a low ATT:DEF ratio?

simple test would be sit on 0 tables endlessly, then leave. you would have 0:100 ratio, and then observe what your luck turns out to be after a few hundred games (few hundred defenses).
Prince Of Persia wrote
at 10:26 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
oh right das, that makes sense
since I only pga'd 5 of my 37 months here. It makes sense that the other 32 months where i had membership and had 49% luck were because I DIDNT pga like crazy. good call
cuckknucker wrote
at 10:27 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
I thought we went over this when we solved the global average luck problem. The fact that neutral can only defend rolls is why its luck has to be higher than 50%.

The reason that is is because defending a roll is generally more probable than attacking, especially for 8 stacks since you can't +roll them.
cuckknucker wrote
at 10:29 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
It results from the fact that defenders win ties monte.
montecarlo wrote
at 10:52 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST
yes, but Ryan isnt comparing to 50% results. he is expecting the defense to win 53% of the time, so why would you expect a deviation from that?
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