Forum
So is this is how it really works?
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woodcubed wrote
at 5:17 AM, Sunday February 27, 2011 EST
I just read the post by Fiero600. Suffice it to say I find it most revealing. Not the part about people abusing moderator status... not the pga crap at higher level tables... not any of that. I knew all of that. Now, for me, I am a casual player, I have never placed, I have my share of people who say they hate me but probably don't remember me. Really I am just mediocre at this game I figured. Yes, I have had a kdice account, the same and only account since I first signed up for this game in its first year, and I have maybe once gotten to the 5,000 tables Honestly i only try to get points so I can escape the zero tables and for really no other reason. So what is this post about? I will tell you.
Fiero600 says in his goodbye post that the luck for an individual player is affected by whether you have an account. If this is true, I need to think long and hard about whether I should even bother playing. This whole post is a response to this idea, and if it is not true that luck is a manipulated figure, please disabuse me of the notion. I don't spend any time usually in this forum so I would not know if this had come up before. You see I had thought luck was simply an accounting of how you did, not a variable in the equation itself. Do you know how much stress it causes me, and to other players I am sure, to lose and lose and lose even when I darn well better know the strategy by now? How I will lose, on my first turn, every single attack, even 5v2, and be killed off instantly before the game has even begun? And this is not to say that can''t happen, but seriously. I always figured there was some random number generator somewhere combined with my own mistakes but if there is a thumb on the scale then is there is no point to any of my effort is there? And do I even want to pay to get an advantage over other players that would amount to cheating? In most games with paid perks, you get some magic armor, or a points boost, or another helping hand. But if it is true that paid subscribers get BETTER LUCK or heck even just a privileged few, than what you are telling me is more equivalent to paying not for a stat boost but instead to paying someone to give your opponents a handicap. I play this game because i figured it was a game of strategy mixed with luck and a way to procrastinate occasionally. But apparently it is a game of fixed statistics and politics. I don't care what goes on at the top of the leader boards. I don't care how rampant the cheating is up in the clouds, and I don't give a crap about point boosts for people who pay for them (because they paid so they should get what is advertised). The only thing i care about, or rather, the only thing i get worked up about, is a basic fairness that comes from true random probability. And if there isn't that one thing, that one most essential component to a game about and centered on the rolling of DICE, then there is no point to any of this, you have causing me small bursts of massive stress for the last 5 YEARS, and I think that anyone who would implement such a system of punishment is a lousy sadist, and ought to be ashamed as a maker of games. If this is true. And please, tell me I am wrong, if i am, because part of me right now sitting here, writing this wants this not to be true, does not wish to believe that i have spent 5 YEARS as the pawn of a sadistic PLOT to provide entertainment for, as fiero600 again so kindly reveals, a "cabal" of special people. This is not about me though, this is about ALL of the people who come to this site and play a game or two for free in their downtime, or have been doing so with some frequency and wonder occasionally how they could lose so badly, or so quickly, or why the same people always seem to breeze through games unscathed. The very people Fiero mentions, whom I have played with many times having been here as long as I have. So I guess we are nearing the end of my rant. I don't tend to write long whiny rants, but I just want to know, Ryan, or moderators, or whomever is in charge: Are you punishing me? Are you causing me suffering? Are you cheating us at a fundamental level? This has always been a timewaster for me (in an ok way) but are you wasting my time? I just want to be honestly unlucky- or nothing at all. |
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reminder wrote
at 1:45 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST This is a bullshit test then. Obviously, some games will have insanely low luck while others will have good/average luck.
There are 2 things you must consider: -you must play to win (find a normal person who tries to lose here) -you should NOT blow games straight after starting them (like losing a 4v3 and insta flagging 7th in round 1... I didn't do that and I really doubt anyone else did) The AVERAGE of those games should be like 45% of luck. Have fun. |
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Boner Oiler wrote
at 3:18 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST You can't average luck off games, you need to average luck off of rolls like that stats page does.
That being said, most people get a stretch of bad luck for every decent length of rolls. Some people get these stretches after they have secured first, some people get them at the start of their games. Obviously one will result in more losses while the other is insignificant. This is coincidence, nothing more. That being said I would cede some accounts are just feel unluckier than others, does that mean there's such a thing as a "curse"? No. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 3:27 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST I hate winning 2v5 when suicidiing an island, when trying for bad luck and + pts
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 3:30 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST if you wonder, the acc is shitty luck
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reminder wrote
at 4:39 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST BO: I suggested average luck because, well, counting the points is an incredibly long and tedious process. To be honest I never considered that the average of my points was somewhat different till fiero told us his story - the only thing I could see was losing +1 and +2 dice advantages incredibly often.
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montecarlo wrote
at 6:59 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST sry, i went to sleep. yah kreuz, what fiero said. fiero averaged 2.8, while over my ~100 games, i was averaging 3.0. these arent 3.4 or even 3.3... they're pretty damn far from the theoretical average of 3.5.
the other good thing about kakku mans tool is you can see the averages of all your opponents too. and not that i was running statistical tests on their rolls, but eyesight was telling me that they were averaging 3.5ish. |
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cuckknucker wrote
at 7:03 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST the other possibility is that the standard deviation of the average dice roll isn't as small as you would think. Obviously it's not an exactly normal distribution because you can't get more than 6 or less than 1. That being said, we don't even know if average luck is normally distributed (we're assuming it is, not everything follows a normal distribution though).
In fact most factory processes don't follow a normal distribution for variations between products. |
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cuckknucker wrote
at 7:06 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST Also the mistake in trying to use t-values to estimate the population average of luck based on samples doesn't take into consideration number of rolls. Ergo you can't use the top 100 players' values of luck to define a luck average because all these players had different numbers of rolls. You could hypothetically if you weighted these values according to their respected number of rolls.
This means all of your "data" on luck and deviation and etc is useless. |
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dasfury wrote
at 7:53 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST How does fiero's pgaing affect his luck is the real question. Curses are bullshit.
Also, way to drop the n-bomb BO. |
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Boner Oiler wrote
at 8:02 AM, Monday February 28, 2011 EST Naturally the only way it could affect you luck is by reducing the possible attacks you can make, therefore it reduces your luck % as opposed to increasing it (which would happen from more conservative play).
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