I saw a +8 twice, I think it is definitely more likely

I agree its a lot more likely, that is the point I want to prove. With numbers and fractions and percentages and everything.

4/48 get it through your head!

1st off, the situation was >= 45 :)

Sam-- you completely forget to factor in probability of rolls and that the probability of rolling 48 isn't the same as rolling a 28. It would only be 4/48 if every 8 roll was a random # between 1-48 like playing bingo. Plus don't forget 1-7 are all out.

There are 6^8 (=46,656) possible rolls if you're doing them as permutations. Only 1 of those is a 48, 8 of them are 47, and 8 ways to make 46 if you roll 7 6s and a 4, and 7+6+5+4+3+2+1 (=28) ways to roll a 46 with 6 6s and 2 5s... I'm not doing the math for 45, but for 46 or higher we're talking 45/46,656.

My math might be wrong, but I'm in the ballpark.
If 1 of the mods will give me a + (skrum?) I'll do all the math/programming for the probability of >=45 and of winning a +8 rolloff.

In conclusion, HAPPY B-DAY TRAVIS!!!!

And in my 2nd conclusion, the probability of rolling 45 or higher is a little bit better than 1/500, so my guess +8 is probably better.

oh, sam was prob kidding? i'm a douchenozzle

skrum can verify my math and give leeroys + to me :-)

odds for rolling 45 or better: 0,0098236740%
odds for rolling 46 or better: 0,0026791838%

odds for winning a +8 rolloff is the sum of odds of rolling X (X:8-39) multiplied by (sum of odds of rolling X+9 or better)

I was surprised to see it this high but apparently 10,763% of the time the dice difference with 8 dice is 9 or higher

for a +4 rolloff: 25,667% of the time the person with a -4 handicap still rolls 5 more than the other person

*enters hall of douchenozzles and kicks leeeroy out*

yeah, i realized i did 6^6, not 6^8, so at least i got my outcomes correct
45 / (6^8) = 2.67918381 × 10-5

So winning +8 is about a 1000x more likely than rolling >45