Forum


Luck %
StormLord wrote
at 4:25 AM, Wednesday January 6, 2010 EST
Say I win a 97% roll.

How lucky was I?
How lucky was my opponent?


Replies 1 - 10 of 25 Next › Last »
StormLord wrote
at 7:58 AM, Wednesday January 6, 2010 EST
Think I got it:

Me = +3% lucky.
Opponent = -3% lucky.

If I lost.

Me = -97% lucky.
Opponent = +97% lucky
StormLord wrote
at 10:04 AM, Wednesday January 6, 2010 EST
Just did a game and got this:

elementis125: -67.73137
Devanthar: -15.78534999999998
Makica: 244.1575
Shidehara: -316.02042000000006
Sheddie: -63.30737000000001
StormLord: 714.3254500000002
dwarf invasion: -145.63844

How do I go about getting a % between 0-100? 50% being normal, 0/100% infinitely unlucky/lucky?
Pat Whalen wrote
at 1:41 PM, Wednesday January 6, 2010 EST
My assumption would be that you would take an average of all the rolls, not just add them up like it seems you have done.
overeasy wrote
at 11:30 PM, Wednesday January 6, 2010 EST
Where can u see this luck stat during a game???
StormLord wrote
at 6:55 AM, Thursday January 7, 2010 EST
I think (1 / probability) is a better idea.

Tachka: -7.71
Rayden5: 6.74
overshoot: -0.87
StormLord: -4.9
Marsyas: 12.71
TheONLYprophet: -3.65
diegosa: -2.32

Luck: dc2: 1.55
fletch85: 3.7
StormLord: 8.87
Yce: 2.83
tanty: -10.35
Waveman: -3
marc13: -3.61

And i'll give up trying to make it a percent.
StormLord wrote
at 8:07 AM, Saturday January 9, 2010 EST
I've managed to get the same number as the one on the stat page.

(1 + average luck) / 2

Where average luck is a number between -1 and 1.

So if you win a 97% roll, you are +3% lucky so:

(1 + 0.03) / 2 = 51.5%

The problem with average luck is it doesn't take into account the magnitude of the luck so:

(0.5 - 0.5 + 0.999999) / 3 = 0.333333

( 1 + 0.333333) / 2 = 66.66665%

You've just won a 1 in a million roll and it's telling you you're only 66% lucky.

Squared average should be used.
StormLord wrote
at 8:38 AM, Saturday January 9, 2010 EST
Should squared averages add up to 0?
the full monte wrote
at 8:40 AM, Saturday January 9, 2010 EST
if you have the free time and are willing, i would be especially interested to see your results based a supposedly "cursed" account, such as the montecarlo account. squaring the luck should make cursed accounts appear even more obvious... or just a conspiracy theory. would be fun.
montecarlo wrote
at 8:54 AM, Saturday January 9, 2010 EST
in all seriousness, StormLord deserves a + for his work. i didnt pay attention to it in forums earlier, but the dude has quite an amazing system implemented.

if you are sitting at a table with him, he has code running (i dont know shit about code, so dont ask me how he does it), that allows each person who has rolled at least once in that particular game to type:

!luck

and it will immediately printout a chat line stating what their current luck for the current game is. he also has a function (!luckall i believe) which allows you to see the luck of everyone who has rolled at least once in the current game.

he has yet to implement anything that spans multiple games, but i would guess that wouldnt be too hard to do, by just using a database.

eventually he could have a system that calculated luck based on a per-roll normalization instead of Ryan's per-game normalization (which causes an average luck less than 50). he also thinks he should square the results per roll so that amazingly unlucky or lucky rolls have more weight than simply winning or losing easy rolls.

i think this is genius, and should be rewarded accordingly. he has obv put some good effort/time into this. i dont even know if he is interested in + pngs, but whether he is or not, i feel he should get one. and hopefully Ryan will pay attention to his hard work and good intentions.
Oprah Winfrey wrote
at 9:48 AM, Saturday January 9, 2010 EST
it's: !allluck (yes with 3 L's)
and i agree, give him a +

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