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Collected data of a cursed account
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fiero600 wrote
at 4:04 AM, Saturday December 20, 2008 EST
In the last 2 months, I noticed extremely bad luck while playing kdice. In november I shrugged it off, but as it got worse in December i started to alter my play style to win points. I started relying more and more heavily on early flags, early truces, and board manipulation to get what i could.
The better i got at this method, the more my points started to stabalize, and my statistics, (while not what they have been in the past) were decent. It was at this point that i noticed an even worse decline in my rolls, and began to track my rolls. Whereas i found it very tedious to track every roll, It was much easier to track the 8 stacks as they were clustered more and contained more data....So anyways, the longer i "cntrl c/v"'d my 8 stack rolls...the more intrigued i was. After tracking game after game, i ended up with data containing 100 dice rolls (800 dice!) Anyways...here's the summary of my dice [skrum if you want to review this, i have the data recorded (and some of it screen shotted when i got too lazy to cntl c)] 8v8's 58 rolls - 7 wins 51 losses 8v7's 9 rolls - 2 wins 7 losses 8v6's 15 rolls - 7 wins 8 losses (almost 50%) 8v5's 6 rolls- 1 win 5 losses (sigh) 8v4 3 rolls- 2 wins 1 loss 8v3 1 roll - 1 win 8v2 3 rolls- 3 wins 0 losses 8v1 5 rolls -5 wins 0 losses Worst 8v8 streak - 32 losses in a row (with Ghostface/ Kdicer X/wozoro watching) Shortest distance between 2 8v8 wins - 7 rolls Best suicide on me - Kdicer X (KDicer X's turn fiero600 defeated 8v8, 25 to 20, (2,4,6,5,2,2,2,2 to 1,6,2,1,2,4,1,3) fiero600 defeated 7v8, 27 to 22, (4,6,4,4,1,6,2 to 1,1,5,2,2,4,1,6) fiero600 defeated 6v8, 23 to 19, (2,6,5,3,4,3 to 6,2,1,1,2,1,4,2) fiero600 defeated 5v8, 23 to 20, (4,4,5,6,4 to 6,4,2,1,2,2,2,1) fiero600 defeated 4v8, 16 to 15, (6,6,3,1 to 1,1,1,2,6,1,1,2) +11 dice) BestT 8 stack roll = 35 Worst 8 stack roll= 11 (ive rolled an 8 though..just not in this set of 100) Overall Total of 800 dice = 1438 Overall Dice average of 800 dice = 1.8 (1.7975) [note : unless im wrong, average dice roll should be 3.5] Im not sure what this data means.... Is it possible for the average of 800 dice to be 1.8 when everyone is on an even scale with the "random luck generator" ? maybe? maybe not? I never used to believe that Ryan could/would "curse" an account... I remember at a time last month several people were complaining about "cursed accounts"... and i shrugged it off. I dont know what exactly Ryan (or who knows maybe a hacker ) did to my account... but i know 1 thing... my account is cursed. For anyone who doesn't believe this.. come watch me play a couple games... ill gladly build up (8 stacks) for you and let you watch as around 90% of them fail 8v8.. consistently. I know there's gonna be a lot of people who simply think this is funny... as many people obsessively hate me (kehoe, vermont, monte).. but i dont believe im the only account that's been cursed... and if Ryan/whoever can curse an account like this... i bet damn well they can make the average roll be 4.5 instead of 3.5... imagine how much that would affect an account. P.S. - Ryan, i dont expect an explanation or even a response because it's not your style to take credit for anything or ever admit to anything.. this was simply for community review and for those others who believe they have been cursed. If anyone wants screen shots / evidence of this data... feel free to message me and ill send it to you. Signed - Fiero600 |
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FuzzyWuzzy wrote
at 6:53 PM, Saturday December 20, 2008 EST What a crybaby. This post is a pathetic excuse for poor play.
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fierosmom wrote
at 10:24 PM, Saturday December 20, 2008 EST I curse every day since you were born son.
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fiero600 wrote
at 2:09 AM, Sunday December 21, 2008 EST Can you pls post on your main accounts?
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fiero600 wrote
at 5:05 PM, Sunday December 21, 2008 EST *cough*
ryan! bump |
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fiero600 wrote
at 11:31 AM, Monday December 22, 2008 EST bump until ryan responds
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moondust wrote
at 11:55 AM, Monday December 22, 2008 EST "Ryan, i dont expect an explanation or even a response..."
I guess you already scared him away :/ |
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fiero600 wrote
at 3:03 PM, Monday December 22, 2008 EST expecting and wanting are different
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NightEternal wrote
at 5:52 PM, Monday December 22, 2008 EST I have no idea how the 'luck' stat is even calculated, but I don't believe that it is really an accurate portrayal of luck.
What really needs to happen is have each category of attacks recorded for each player. ie.. 2v1 defend win/loss, 2v1 attack win/loss ... 8v8 defend win/loss, 8v8 attack win/loss. Which would ultimately be 240 different statistics. Just looking at your 8vX information isn't really enough to determine if you're cursed or not. I highly doubt that there is any sort of 'curse' written into kdice's random number generator. |
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fiero600 wrote
at 8:28 PM, Monday December 22, 2008 EST ive had absolutely terrible luck on all attacks, enough so that i actually went to the trouble of tracking it.
i tracked only 8v8 because it was an easier stat to track but if it gets worse i may track other stats..but its not like the rest of the game was good and then only 8v8's were difficult. |
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Dice! wrote
at 1:08 AM, Tuesday December 23, 2008 EST Although I don't have rigorous data, last month (Nov 2008) my luck for the whole month was 45.8% over 229 games (0.1% away from making the top 5 unluckiest for the month if I recall correctly). I still managed 7130 pts and a rank of 83rd. Anyway I'm not a very prolific player, I don't think I have ever even seen Ryan in a game and haven't had any real serious drama with other players. So I'm quite certain that Ryan does not even know my account exists much less has taken the time to modify my rolls. It would, therefore, appear to me that these sorts of dramatic unlucky streaks can occur naturally.
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