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This "Luck" stat is completely misleading
g00b2 wrote
at 12:39 PM, Saturday January 12, 2008 EST
I just came in 7th with 54% luck. The REAL story of my luck: I went 7th, won a couple of rolls (+1, +1), got two side by side 5's ... right beside someone else's ROUND 1 8 STACK.

It's the starts that are killing me. Other people's (often idiotic) decisions aren't helping, mind you.

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g00b2 wrote
at 2:49 PM, Saturday January 12, 2008 EST
Fear not my friends, I came in 1st. LOOK OUT TOP 10 HERE I COME!!!
Avi G wrote
at 8:19 AM, Sunday January 13, 2008 EST
I seriously don't get it either.

A game in which I lost 100% of my four rolls, two of which were advantage, and luck = 23.5%.

How is this calculated?
Avi G wrote
at 9:54 AM, Sunday January 13, 2008 EST
Jesus-titty-fucking-christ.

I start last.

first attack on me:

Avi G defeated 3v3, 13 to 7, (3,5,5 to 4,2,1)

second attack on me:

Avi G defeated 5v3, 23 to 10, (6,3,4,6,4 to 5,2,3)

now it's my turn, with my last remaining piece (a Fiver):

mss defended 5v3, 15 to 15, (3,5,1,2,4 to 3,6,6)

a rebuild to 2, and then I'm gone:

Avi G defeated 3v2, 8 to 3, (4,2,2 to 1,2)

Finish 7th, of course.

Luck: 28%

28% of What, that's what I want to know!
Ryan wrote
at 10:11 AM, Sunday January 13, 2008 EST
Anything above 50% is lucky and below is unlucky. So, 28% is very unlucky, 0% or 100% is impossible - you would need to lose every roll with 100% chance of winning, or win every roll with 100% chance of losing.
Hartless wrote
at 12:35 PM, Sunday January 13, 2008 EST
Well, until Ryan adds a "Suck" stat to measure the true source of your problems, I think you'll just have to keep complaining. Maybe Ryan will add a stat to track that?
Death Engineer wrote
at 4:34 PM, Sunday January 13, 2008 EST
I think what you're really trying to say is, "Ryan... I really don't understand what this Luck parameter is that shows up on my profile. Can you explain how it works technically for us?"
Avi G wrote
at 6:24 AM, Monday January 14, 2008 EST
of course, engineer. my terrible luck is my own to cherish. I just wanted to know how the field is calculated so I can better sulk over it ;)
jurgen wrote
at 8:12 AM, Monday January 14, 2008 EST
If you really get 11 6th and 7th places in 15 games, be happy that there only is a luck meter and not a kdice skill meter because I have a feeling you won't be getting anywhere close to 50% with that stat record.

Good thing there are overall statistics too besides your once in a while streak of odd results no? If at the end of the month you are at 45% luck, then it is time to start complaining. Otherwise, just have fun and don't get frustrated with such a small shortcoming of a statistical calculation.

I got frustrated too a few days ago when chat kept being laggy and I started losing games because of it. You just have to leave it and accept the problems with it so you can focus again on your game.

Now just start eating lots of pie and you will be winning much more games again. Eating lots of cake however will increase your luck factor to at least 55%. I am still not sure what messing with a sheep will do to your stats. We need more input for that from the more experienced animal lovers of the forum. If you are prepared to do anything to raise your luck%, I would strongly advise you to start experimenting in that area...
Louis Cypher wrote
at 8:46 AM, Monday January 14, 2008 EST
The point I keep wondering about is, how is "Luck" computed?

Sure enough it does not take the quality of your starting position into account. If it was possible to assess these they would be more balanced. The property "good start" is likely to be semantic and thus not computable.

Thus it can only give an idea on how often much your winning and losing differs from the probabilities. If you win more often you should be considered lucky.

If your victory or defeat is vital to the game and winning it, again is beyond the things that can be calculated easily (e.g. I was lucky to win 2v4 (very lucky) but actually wanted to suicide the 2stack...)

So, can anybody contribute the formula behind luck? Or does anybody know, where it is documented?
Thomsi wrote
at 9:49 AM, Thursday May 6, 2010 EDT
id like to know the formula too.. i lost 6v3 8v4 and 8v6 in one game (among some other +1 losses), and i have 46% luck
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