Forum
oddities with odds.
Dazzy wrote
at 7:51 PM, Friday December 29, 2006 EST
i know a bit about numbers. quite a bit. and i know that the results of a random number gen seem intuitively not random, BUT... so often in this game, a player (lets say me) will attack as much as 10 times in a row from equal stack to equal stack, and lose... no yes, this may be interspersed with other people doing whatever they may be doing, but that doesnt actually alter the odds of the 10 attacks in a row for that 1 player, not a jot... if we assume 50-50 odds in an equal dice match (i know, i know, dont tell me its more like 46-54), then the odds of this are 1024 to 1... so... only once in a set of 1024 (ish) 10 hits in a row should this phenomena be seen. it has happened to me at least twice, and i dont have many 10 fiddy fiddy hit streaks, if u know what i mean...
all this is a roundabout way of asking you how reliable ur random number generator is, ryan... a lot of people moan when they lose 2 hits in a row, i know... i like to think i am slightly more discerning than this tho... at the end of the day, its the same for every1, if it is unbalanced, it is equally so for all (apart from green, they never win :p), and i certainly havent done too bad out of it all... but yeah, it does feel like there may be an issue... oh, and im sorry if this has been raised a million times before - as i alluded to in my other post, the lack of forum buttons make an exhaustive search somewhat prohibitive. :p |
Replies 1 - 8 of 8
Dazzy wrote
at 7:56 PM, Friday December 29, 2006 EST oh ye, the streaks i am talkin about are generally of the 8v8 dice, before u all explain to me that the odds of 2v2 is much more biased to the def! :)
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no Wolf wrote
at 8:04 PM, Friday December 29, 2006 EST This....this is actually the Grid's department, I'll call him in.
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KimJongIl wrote
at 8:06 PM, Friday December 29, 2006 EST YOU CAN FLIP A QUARTER 100 TIMES AND GET HEADS EVERY TIME. IT IS STILL RANDOM.
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Cabalistik wrote
at 8:26 AM, Saturday December 30, 2006 EST Gotta agree with Kim there. It's still random eventhough it may seem unfair.
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TheGrid wrote
at 9:13 AM, Saturday December 30, 2006 EST Yes, well lets see this, how many attacks does a game last? I have no idea. 50 rounds are quite possible. So 50 rounds, 7 players, say 2 attacks a turn in the middle. That makes a game 700 attacks long.
Well you are right that a strike of 10 has a chance of 1:1024. Well if a game lasts 700 attacks you have roughly a 75% chance at least one will have 10 losses in a row. Other than that, random numbers are generated in computers by "pseudorandom" that means, that means yes, if you know the parameters the pseudorandom machine works at, you could predict the next dice throws. We don't know how the JavaVM implements the random machine. But there is a major and good corporation (Sun) behind it, so trust it to be done well. Some random machines on linux operating systems even take some data from /dev/random, which overs hardware generated entropy, and is therefore not (much less) perdictable. Typical default Hardware entropy is e.g. seek times on your harddisk, the time the harddisk reading head needs to reaches a specific sector on the disc is a bit random in limits. Yes, pseudorandom can have effects on reaccuring patterns. But this is very obscure (like a 1:10000 tilts from ideal white noise), and none of us could ever notice this in a game. This is definitely not the source of unfair felt long strikes. Beside that, there are hardware random devices available on the market. But they are pretty expensive. A normal quality one costs 750,- bucks. There are even available ones which rely on quantuum mechanics and are totally unpredictable, but they cost around 3000,- bucks. So I can say, if you are willing to pay ~1000,- bucks for kdice to use random mechanics also reliable online lotteries use. Feel yourself invited ;) However be prepaired that even with a quantuum mechanics random generator you will experience 10 losses in a row. At least every 2nd game you play, such a loss-run should occur for 1 player. And even 10th game you play, you should get yourself such a loss-run. If it wouldn't happen, random would be broken ;o) |
no Wolf wrote
at 1:52 PM, Saturday December 30, 2006 EST Of course, there's not seven players throughout the game. :P
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fuzzycat wrote
at 3:16 PM, Saturday December 30, 2006 EST Well then correct my numbers by a factor of 2. I don't know, we just would need to know the approx. attacks per game.
So its every 3 games somebody gets a row of 10 losses, and 20 games you play, you get yourself a row of 10 losses. Note that a row of 8 losses is already considered pretty unfair luck, you well get this every aprox. 4th game then. |