Math: Where was the luck?
Louis Cypher wrote
at 4:32 AM, Friday July 12, 2019 EDT
Looking at this very short game ( I lost each and every roll and averaged clearly below the statistically expected value of 3.5 points per dice. Shit happens, nothing new, that's not my point.

My stats claim, that I had 38.5% luck... I'm just wondering when.

Replies 1 - 4 of 4
jurgen wrote
at 7:15 AM, Monday July 22, 2019 EDT

Stormlord explains in this thread how the luck formula works

Intuitively, the luck formula reflects how rare the combination of all outcomes of all attacks were (compared with their odds of happening).

In a simplified situation of flipping a coin 6 times, you'd expect to get 3 times head and 3 times tails most of the time.

If you flipped 6 times and got 4 heads, 2 tails, your "luck" would be about 38 too: not the most expected outcome but not extremely rare either

PS: flipping 6 times head wouldn't give 0% either, there's still a chance to get that outcome
Louis Cypher wrote
at 7:53 AM, Wednesday July 31, 2019 EDT
Don't you hate it when you are ranting, working of frustration, practicing your average anger management (which has room for improvement without discussion) and some kid ruins it with facts? DAMN.

Other than that, thanks for the explanation.

And thanks to Ryan for taking a dump during that 1 of the 6 games I played on this last day of the month (18.2, 47.9, 44.8, 44.3, 50.8, 43.1). The message was clear enough for even me to understand it. I won't be sitting this month. Next time it'd be nice to be notified in advance that I should avoid playing the last week (2 out of 10 games above 49, the majority below 45...).

@Jurgen: I do not wish to be informed that a game consisting of exactly 1 roll is not representative. Nor do I wish to know that 6 games isn't really a critical mass for statistics. I am very happy in my ignorance at times. ;-)
Louis Cypher wrote
at 10:54 AM, Thursday August 8, 2019 EDT
Another random game where I don't even get to move on 2k, lose >1k and had 42.5% luck without defending a single time. It is so funny.
Louis Cypher wrote
at 11:02 AM, Thursday August 8, 2019 EDT
Next game 2k another 47.2.... 3k lost in 2 games with no chance at anything ever. You want me to stop playing this, write me an email but stop this bullshit.
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