Okay Ryan so would you please spill the beans on what the newish (last year or so) modifier is here? There has to have been some change made. The amount of +2, 3 and 4 fails that occur here is like nothing I've seen since '07.
Maybe something like:
if player rolling level <10 then result = roll +20% or
if player not on favorite list then result = roll -50%
or
if games played = <50 then +20% roll result

Obviously I am no programmer but it isn't hard to see by the QUANTITY (cause they will always happen) of BS rolls that SOMETHING has changed here and it would be easier to shovel the shit if you knew how much there was going to be to shovel. Thanks.