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Something's wrong with the RNG.
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Improv42 wrote
at 7:04 PM, Thursday October 18, 2007 EDT
I know it's a common complaint, and I've donned the standard-issue flame-proof suit as a result, but this is plain odd.
I lost a 4v2 on my turn, 11 to 11, and decided to go around the other way to that spot with a six-stack which, by the time it got there, was also a four. I rolled again, thinking that there was no way I could lose again with a two-die advantage. Not only did I lose, but I lost 11 to 11 again. What the flying monkey spank are the odds against losing two rolls by the same score with a two die advantage both times attacking the same territory? I know it's probably happened to everyone, and I guess I wanted to just vent, but that seems fairly astronomical, and I thought maybe one of you probability geniuses out there could work it out (Eddie, the shipboard computer is not here to do it for me). |
Replies 1 - 3 of 3
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skrumgaer wrote
at 7:48 PM, Thursday October 18, 2007 EDT It would be exactly the same odds if you had lost two 2 v 4's against the same territory, 11 to 11 both times. Subjectively, one would think that the 2 v 4 loss would be more probable. But the 11 to 11 both times makes the two events equally probable. The probability of getting an 11 to 11 would be the probability of getting an 11 on two dice (which is 1/18, I think) times the probability of getting an 11 on four dice (which is probably greater than 1/20) so it would be approximately 1/360. Small, but not astronomical.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 8:01 PM, Thursday October 18, 2007 EDT (Continued)
With two consecutive rolls, the odds would be approximately 1/129,600. Smaller, but still not astronomical. Let us suppose that each of the 60,000 kdicers were to roll only two 4 v 2's per day. Then this event would happen somewhere on the boards on the average of every other day. But suppose that the typical kdicer plays 10 games a day and rolls two 4 v 2's consecutively in half of them. Then this event would happen a little more than twice a day on the boards. |
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Big Jumblies wrote
at 11:12 PM, Thursday October 18, 2007 EDT if it was the middle of a long connect, and it was within the first 3 rounds, you have a 1 in 15 chance of succesfully winning a 4v2. So if you had 13 more 4 stacks to try, you probably could have made it.
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