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Your REAL chances of winning a roll.
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totalsoccer wrote
at 4:56 PM, Wednesday December 20, 2006 EST
my calculations where based on simulation, but now Dzorz has calculated the EXACT chances. So here they are in a nice layout on top of a new thread (thank you Dzorz :))
<table><tr><th align=left></th><th align=left>1</th><th align=left width=60>2</th><th align=left>3</th><th align=left>4</th><th align=left width=60>5</th><th align=left>6</th><th align=left>7</th><th align=left width=60>8</th><tr><th>2</th><td>83.796</td><td>44.367</td><td>15.201</td><td>3.588</td><td>0.610</td><td>0.077</td><td>0.007</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><th>3</th><td>97.299</td><td>77.855</td><td>45.358</td><td>19.170</td><td>6.071</td><td>1.488</td><td>0.289</td><td>0.045</td></tr><tr><th>4</th><td>99.730</td><td>93.924</td><td>74.283</td><td>45.953</td><td>22.044</td><td>8.342</td><td>2.545</td><td>0.638</td></tr><tr><th>5</th><td>99.985</td><td>98.794</td><td>90.935</td><td>71.808</td><td>46.365</td><td>24.245</td><td>10.363</td><td>3.674</td></tr><tr><th>6</th><td>100.000</td><td>99.822</td><td>97.530</td><td>88.395</td><td>69.962</td><td>46.673</td><td>25.998</td><td>12.151</td></tr><tr><th>7</th><td>100.000</td><td>99.980</td><td>99.466</td><td>96.154</td><td>86.238</td><td>68.516</td><td>46.91</td><td>27.438</td></tr><tr><th>8</th><td>100.000</td><td>99.998</td><td>99.907</td><td>98.953</td><td>94.773</td><td>84.387</td><td>67.346</td><td>47.109</td></tr></table> |
Replies 1 - 10 of 10
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Felixycat wrote
at 6:33 PM, Wednesday December 20, 2006 EST If you add another decimal place will it show the chance of a 6 losing to a 1?
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Joppapottomaus wrote
at 11:40 PM, Wednesday December 20, 2006 EST That is incorrect at least in the 6 vs 1 cell. In that situation you could both get six and a tie is a loss in kdice.
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Argmo wrote
at 1:55 AM, Thursday December 21, 2006 EST The numbers are rounded to the nearest thousandth of a percent. The odds of 6 attackers beating one defender is more accurately 99.9996427754915%, which rounds to 100.000%
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MadWilly wrote
at 12:37 PM, Saturday December 23, 2006 EST which means you win that with 1 time in 2000rolls.
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MadWilly wrote
at 1:35 PM, Saturday December 23, 2006 EST or better 1 in 2800
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Albert Hendriks wrote
at 2:02 PM, Saturday December 23, 2006 EST Yeah maybe there was some misconception about the word "exact". The exact chances were calculated by mathematics (instead of by simulation). The chances are not exact in the sense that after calculation, they were rounded to 3 decimals.
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MadWilly wrote
at 8:48 PM, Monday December 25, 2006 EST aha.
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qaswed wrote
at 5:00 AM, Tuesday December 26, 2006 EST Thank you for the table. I've updated the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kdice">Kdice wikipedia page</a> with these exact probabilities, replacing the simulated ones which were there before.
(hope that link works... no idea what code is allowed in this forum!) |
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SandyBell wrote
at 1:02 AM, Friday February 9, 2007 EST .
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SandyBell wrote
at 12:39 PM, Friday February 9, 2007 EST @totalsoccer
Can you ask Dzorz to explain how the probabilities were calculated? Can we see some formulas? |
