you are right but I will explain in my own thread :P

its an easy experiment in that case. use kakks program for a month, and never NEVER attack neutral. ofc you gotta do this for hundreds of games, which might be interesting...

I am gonna delay my response since -FUCK ME-, after typing half my wall of text, I found a flaw in my own reasoning. :-/

and I also need kakku data to confirm because I need to know what the average dice advantage players use on grey compared to attacking humans (should be a bit more conservative rolls?)

another experiment I propose to do with kakku's divine piece of equipment (the KDice addon, not the one after the help of the erection tool): can 2 players in heads up in a tourney do the folowwing experiment with kakku's script running???

after the tourney winner is decided, the winner flags out before the loser is dead and they start a new game. Nobody attacks anything, just build until you can start 8v8. 8v8 rolls only all game! Don't kill a player fast, if someone gets a fast advantage, let the other one come back again by not attacking anymore. You'd need at least 100 or 200 8v8's only in that game. If my reasoning so far is right, both players should end up with 47,1% luck. The eventual winner slightly higher than 47,1 since he won a few 8v8's more.

I am really curious if this is true!

Monte that wouldn't prove anything and has nothing to do with how you compute the global average of luck.

By definition (how luck is defined on your stats page) every successful roll and every failed roll adds to your own luck. But at the same time the successful defenses and successful offenses of those who you roll are added to your opponents' luck. Since by definition all these rolls should add to 100% with their counterparts and thus average to 50% my question is why the global average luck % isn't 50%. The reason has to do with Neutral and rounding error (although it can be argued that rounding error cancels itself out).

Do you understand now Monte?

Jurgen are you taking into account that each successful defense adds 53%? In 100 rolls the average luck for both players should still be 50% or it should be tipped towards one or the other slightly.

In which case adding and then dividing their lucks should net you 50%


sorry for the triple post

umm no I didnt, I was just writing about evening out to 50% SIGH , I 'll just copy the part I was writing until I found my flaw

we all know the luck% formula by now

win 0,5+(odd win/2)
lost 0,5-(odd loss/2)

if you only do 2v2 for example: your luck average would be an average of your 44,37%wins ---> 0,4436728*(0,5+0,2218364) and 55,63% losses ---->0,5563272*(0,5-0,2781636)

this yields 0,320259177 + 0,123413623 or 0,4436728 % average luck which surprise surprise is you odd for winning 2v2.

If you would only roll 1 particular roll, your average luck% will be the odd of that roll. Of course you get attacked too so you can't check that in real life. Everybody's luck is supposed to be 50% because you attack and get attacked and you would assume everyone has the same proportion of rolling 2v2;3v2;4v4 etc.

What I mean is you get a 44,37% contribution from your 2v2 attacks you made but you also get an equally big contribution of 55,63% luck from the 2v2's that are done to you

So unless there is grey, all players luck combined would yield 50%.

BUT! there is grey and it can't attack back! that's where the luck is draining. Grey has luck higher than 50% on average.


Suddenly I am not so sure anymor egrey has 50+ luck% :-/

I assumed people rolled more conservatively on grey and grey couldn't attack back to compensate, BUT THEN THAT WOULD MEAN GREY WOULD GET OUR OWN LUCK ABOVE 50% since I assumed we roll mainly + rolls so you'd add >50% luck on your average roll son grey

Back to sguare -10 ---> I hate this 49,3% luck average puzzle!

and yes, sorry, I responded too fast, the 8v8 experiment SHOULD yield 50% combined, slightly more for the winner

Well I am pretty sure gray has 50+%luck and that's because GLOBAL LUCK has to average out at 50% by definition. Every attack roll averages with the defense roll of the player who you attacked to be 50%, same goes for every defense roll you make. Since gray never attacks its luck is skewed towards defenses which are generally greater than 50% for your typical rolls. I would assume where a lot of the player luck sinks is in 8v8s on gray lands after a player flags out.

Since 8v8s on gray are more typical than anything else this is why gray's luck is 50+%