Forum
Unreal turn
palegy wrote
at 7:52 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST
Hey guys, look at the turn that I observed today:
gecla defeated 37/48 -> 21/48 gecla defeated 31/42 -> 30/48 gecla defeated 20/36 -> 13/48 gecla defeated 21/30 -> 20/48 gecla defended 11/24 -> 15/48 This threas is just FYI |
JKD wrote
at 7:58 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST It's not rare for that to happen in end-game >.<
|
fuzzycat wrote
at 9:17 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST Its a 1% chance, but 1% is 1% and not 0%
|
the brain wrote
at 10:25 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST It's actually 0.05% so it's pretty rare, but possible ;)
|
shiffy wrote
at 11:18 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST seriously how can you say that's not rare..that boggles the mind
|
shiffy wrote
at 11:19 AM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST oh i didn't notice he didn't win the last roll.. still pretty crazy
|
JKD wrote
at 1:20 PM, Thursday February 1, 2007 EST 8 vs 8
... 5 vs 8: Not rare 4 vs 8: meh When I hear someone do those and then win the 3 vs 8 I'll be mildly surprised. |
shiffy wrote
at 2:27 AM, Friday February 2, 2007 EST it's not even just that it happened, but all in a row too. did you not see the post that says it's a .05% chance? I don't think you appreciate how small that is
|
fuzzycat wrote
at 2:47 AM, Friday February 2, 2007 EST shiffy, you do know that there is a difference between defeated and defended?
|
the brain wrote
at 11:37 AM, Friday February 2, 2007 EST There's also a difference between a single event and a series of events. Winning a single 5-vs-8 is not extremely rare (3.7%). However, winning a 5-vs-8 after winning a 8-vs-8, 7-vs-8 and 6-vs-8 is rare. Like I said before it's 0.05%, or 1 in 2000, not to mention that not every player would be prepared to take a risk like this.
Besides that, the fact that he lost the 4-vs-8 does not change that the series of 4 attacks preceding it is indeed rare. |
shiffy wrote
at 1:02 PM, Friday February 2, 2007 EST yeah fuzzycat i already noticed the last roll wasn't a win and posted about it. thanks for backing me up brain
|